why this is important for Ireland

THE IRISH CONSTANTLY rank among the most pro-EU in the Union. Yet as a country we are apparently not preoccupied with what is perhaps the most important political speech that many of us have never heard of: the annual State of the Union speech. by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

Every September since 2010, the President of the European Commission delivers a speech to the European Parliament, taking stock of the past year and describing the priorities and ambitions of the Commission for the coming year, as well as the US President’s State of the Union before Congress.

This year’s speech, which will take place tomorrow morning, will be an opportunity to present the ambitious reforms and aspirations that will shape the EU for the coming year. And while its precise contents are kept under lock and key until the daylight, there are important political developments to watch out for that could have seismic impacts on Ireland.

Climate action and the EU’s sustainable recovery from Covid, tackling the EU’s dependence on external partners and the future of the European economy are among the key issues that should be discussed.

Amid continuing feuds over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, however, with the UK government, DUP and others demanding its renegotiation, Irish ears will be waiting to hear what President von der Leyen has said. to say about Brexit and future EU-UK relations. .

Fight against climate change

The EU has set itself the ambitious goal of becoming a carbon neutral continent by 2050 and reducing its greenhouse gases by 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.

EU Legislative package “Fit for 55” is an ambitious set of proposals that will require a total re-imagining of how European countries, including Ireland, generate our energy, manage our economies, heat our homes, produce our food and travel.

Exactly how Ireland achieves these goals depends on its national government. An update of the Climate Action Plan is expected this year, but several challenges are already on the horizon.

There will likely be tough discussions about how Ireland can reconcile cutting its agricultural emissions, which account for around 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with plans to expand agri-food production. As an island nation, there can also be travel implications if aviation fuel taxes are introduced and subsidies removed.

The expansion of data centers in Ireland could jeopardize our energy security if they end up consuming a third of Ireland’s electricity supply by 2030 and impact clean energy supply, such as the suggests a recent Eirgrid report.

President von der Leyen’s speech is expected to explain how the Fit for 55 measures can help address these issues, and how to make our air cleaner, our cities healthier and more livable, protect our rich biodiversity and achieve green economic growth. sustainable.

A European carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would tax imports by incorporating their carbon emissions into their costs to prevent carbon leakage, could reduce carbon costs globally and encourage production standards cleaner around the world and a level playing field for EU industries on the world stage, a boon for a highly globalized and trade dependent economy like Ireland.

Further progress towards EU security and defense cooperation

The fallout from the current situation in Afghanistan has given further impetus to the EU’s debates on the risks of its military dependence on the United States. For Ireland, its dependence on EU partners, as well as the UK and US, was evident in the rush to airlift Irish citizens out of Kabul as it fell under the control of the Taliban.

This is part of a much larger challenge facing the EU as it aims to reduce its dependence on external partners, such as China or the United States, and to act more autonomously. in the world. A possible challenge for Ireland, and a concern that has persisted for some time, is the unclear end goal of greater European security and defense cooperation, and how this might affect long-standing politics of Ireland in matters of military non-alignment and neutrality.

Ireland’s policy of military neutrality is of course guaranteed within the EU, but a more assertive ‘global Europe’ could provide Ireland with opportunities to protect and promote our common values ​​within the EU, in our own right. immediate neighborhood and beyond.

Concerns for Ireland’s economic model

As Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on external partners, Ireland is keen to ensure that any move towards a more ‘strategically autonomous’ Europe preserves the open and rules-based global trading system which countries like Ireland benefit greatly.

During the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU’s dependence on third countries for strategically sensitive sectors like medical equipment and pharmaceuticals was very evident. This has accelerated the EU’s progress towards self-sufficiency and can be particularly difficult to achieve without resorting to protectionist measures such as tariffs on imports or subsidies to EU companies.

The State of the Union will likely explore how the Commission plans to thread this needle of an open but independent EU in the world.

Through initiatives such as the GDPR, which has impacted all of our lives and protected our privacy, the EU has become a global leader in technology regulation. Regulation is not the same as innovation, however, and in an era of global technology competition between the United States, China and others, Europe increasingly appears to be a global arbiter. As one expert put it, however, “referees tend not to win matches. “

Given the increased pressure for a global minimum corporate tax rate, it could be argued that Ireland’s current economic model, a significant part of which relies on foreign direct investment (FDI) by companies Americans, is increasingly threatened. How Ireland engages and manages this discussion at European level could have lasting implications for the Irish economy and society.

The State of the Union will probably give an idea of ​​how the Commission views the future economic shape and trajectory of the Union and Ireland.

And Brexit, of course

Finally, so little has changed about Brexit and Northern Ireland’s status in recent months, the unilateral extension of the Northern Ireland Protocol has been met with little recognition by Brussels. During the Brexit negotiations, EU member states designated the European Commission as a key interlocutor and negotiator with London, rather than national capitals.

The Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, US-China tensions and growing concerns over a potential new migration crisis at the EU’s southern and eastern borders mean that EU-UK relations have been put on hold.

However, this does not mean that the equivalence issues for the transfer of data and information between the EU and the UK, financial services, agricultural trade and professional services have been resolved. As the member state most affected by Brexit, Ireland’s diplomatic efforts to keep European attention on future relations with the UK will remain a key focus, and the State of the Union could indicate how our European partners see the future of relations with our nearest neighbor. .

The State of the Union is a moment of reflection, an opportunity to take stock of where we have been and where we want to go in the future. Each January there are countless columns devoted to the US President’s State of the Union address, although this speech may have little impact on our daily life in Ireland.

Conversely, the measures announced in tomorrow’s speech by Ursula von der Leyen will probably have a huge impact here. Particular attention tomorrow will shed light on what this impact could be.

Alexander Conway is a research fellow for the Global Europe Project at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), focusing on internal EU political developments and the role of the EU in the world.