With the Russian government’s announcement on March 14 to temporarily suspend exports of wheat, rye, barley and maize abroad, a number of importing African countries are experiencing rising prices. The Russian government’s move was aimed at avoiding domestic (internal) shortages as Western and European sanctions are widened against Russia for its special military operation which began on February 24.

As the United States and the European Union (EU) increase sanctions against Russia over a special military operation, demilitarization and denazification in Ukraine, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed an order barring the export of white and raw sugar until August 31, and banning exports of wheat, rye, barley and corn to neighboring states of the Eurasian Economic Union until June 30. The measures were adopted “to protect the domestic food market from external constraints,” the government statement said.

Many outside countries would be affected by the export suspensions, but would continue to provide special export licenses to traders within their current quota. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter with Egypt and Turkey among the main buyers. It is mainly in competition with the European Union and Ukraine. European wheat prices rose after the Interfax news agency reported on Russia’s bank on grain exports. He didn’t initially mention the ban’s exclusions.

With the Russian government having imposed restrictions on exports, a number of African countries risk a possible shortage of wheat and fertilizer due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. For example, the Mozambican government has warned that the country could experience a shortage of wheat and fertilizers as a direct result of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, one of the main producers of these materials.

In an interview with Dr. Chtatou Mohamed, Senior Professor of Middle East Politics at the International University of Rabat (IUR) and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, explains that the outlook for African countries is bleak at the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. The halt in grain exports, including wheat, and other agricultural inputs, will hit most of them hard, already facing a structural food crisis (climate disruption, conflicts) or greatly weakened by rising prices and stock market speculation on essential products.

This is a concern for the African continent, a net importer of wheat and sunflower oil. In addition, drought is causing concern in some parts of the continent. The disruption in commodity shipments would only add to the general concern about food price inflation in a region that imports wheat.

Citing statistical figures, Professor Shtatou says that Moscow and kyiv account for 34% of trade in wheat, a commodity which has increased by 70% since the beginning of the year. The countries around the Mediterranean are suffering enormously. For Egypt, this represents 80% of imports. It is the first importer of wheat in the world (12 million tons). Agricultural exchanges between the countries of the continent and Russia and Ukraine are significant

He finally concluded that Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global commodity market. Russia supplies around 10% of the world’s wheat, while Ukraine produces 4%. Collectively, this represents almost all of the European Union’s wheat production. This grain is destined for domestic consumption and export markets. Together, these two countries account for a quarter of world wheat exports; in 2020, they amounted to 18% for Russia and 8% for Ukraine.

According to the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Celso Correia, this could lead to higher prices for these products and their derivatives. He was speaking at the official launch of the rice harvest campaign in Regadio do Baixo Limpopo, Gaza province. Minister Correia took the opportunity to reiterate that the country hopes, by 2030, to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, while reducing cereal imports as much as possible.

Writing for The Conversation, Wandile Sihlobo, a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University, says wheat and other grains are back at the heart of geopolitics after Ukraine invaded Ukraine. Russia. Both countries play a major role in the global agricultural market. It is very important for African leaders to pay attention to the current situation and related trends.

Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer exporter by value, followed by China, Canada, the United States, Morocco and Belarus. These fertilizer blends include minerals or chemicals ranging from nitrogen to phosphorus and potassium. Fertilizers are an important part of the growth of agricultural products and crops around the world, and a substantial part of input costs. In South Africa, fertilizers represent about 35% of the input costs of cereal producers in South Africa.

Popular Russian media, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, reported on March 10 that the global food crisis that began during the pandemic is worsened by the suspension of wheat and sunflower oil exports from Russia and Ukraine. Although this problem does not significantly affect Russia, the European Union is already concerned about the lack of products.

Signs of a food crisis were already evident before the special military operation in Ukraine, says Evgenia Serova, director of agricultural policy at the Higher School of Economics. The price hike was triggered not only by the pandemic, but also by the EU and US shift to biofuels, which began to drain the volume of crops used as food, the expert said.

In addition to the logistical problems, due to the aggravated geopolitical situation, the world market could be negatively impacted by the suspension of Russian fertilizer exports. Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade recommended the move amid sabotage of carriers refusing to transport Russian products. Russia ranks among the world’s top three exporters of mineral fertilizers. Freezing such exports would only trigger higher prices, the expert noted, and further predicted that “for at least the next two years we will have to live in conditions of runaway food inflation.” .

In previous years, Russia has increased its exports with a view to generating revenue and gaining a foothold in foreign markets. Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Research Dmitry Rylko considers the export initiative promising, although Russian products are not very popular abroad. He believes that promoting exports will not only help raise awareness of traded products in international markets, but also improve their quality. “The problem is to promote products from the high-end segment, which will also promote international tourism,” Rylko said.

There is still a lot that is not known about the geopolitical challenges ahead of us. But for African countries, there is cause for concern given their reliance on grain imports. In the short term, countries will likely see the impact through a spike in prices, rather than an actual shortage of commodities.

According to research reports, African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90% of these products were wheat and 6% sunflower oil. The main importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported $2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of these exports were wheat, 31% corn, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley and soy.

Long before the February 24 crisis, Russia indicated strong preparation and interest in expanding cooperation in trade and economic sectors in Africa. It’s hard to predict now. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered to restrict or ban the import and export of certain products and raw materials from Russia in 2022, in accordance with the decree on special foreign economic measures aimed at ensuring the security of Russia.

“Ensure the implementation of the following special economic measures until December 31, 2022: ban on export and import of products and/or raw materials in accordance with lists to be defined by the Government of the Russian Federation”, indicates the document, adding that a separate document listing will define the goods whose export and import will be restricted. The decree becomes necessary to ensure the security of Russia and the uninterrupted functioning of agriculture and industry.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, preparations for the Russia-Africa summit are in an active phase. The dates for the summit have not yet been set. The first Russia-Africa Summit took place in October 2019, and it was co-chaired by Russian and Egyptian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. The next summit is scheduled for fall 2022.

Related

The chairman of Ukrainian Railways said the Polish, Czech and Slovenian prime ministers, who traveled by train for a meeting Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, took a “strong step” to show their support for his war-torn country, albeit a “naïve”.

“It was really important to us, even if it was naive,” Oleksandr Kamyshin told CNN on Wednesday.

Kamyshin, the top leader of the national rail system, called the move naïve because the EU leaders’ delegation announced its travel plans while still en route to the capital.

kyiv was terrorized by a campaign of Russian airstrikes that have hit residential areas in recent days, including several apartment buildings – prompting a 35-hour curfew that began on Tuesday evening.

The Ukrainian railway system is not immune to these strikes. But on Tuesday morning, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that he was heading, together with Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, to kyiv.

Along the way, Morawiecki wrote in a Facebook post, “It’s our job to be where history is made. Because it’s not about us, it’s about the future of our children who deserve to live in a world without tyranny.”

Fiala also tweeted that “the purpose of the visit is to confirm the unequivocal support of the whole European Union for the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine”.

Since the start of the war, security concerns have been at the heart of the 37-year-old railway executive’s concerns.

Kamyshin and his principal deputies have spent the past three weeks criss-crossing the country, managing the railway’s 321,000 employees and around 1,450 moving stations. He thinks railroad management is a target for Russian bombs, so staying in near-constant motion is a matter of personal safety.

“Even to my children, I don’t say to them, ‘Hey, don’t reveal your position’, because everyone should understand that it’s war. I can’t give instructions to prime ministers,” a- he declared.

According to Kamyshin, it was the prime ministers’ idea to travel to kyiv by train, believing it to be the safest mode of transport.

He agreed, although a train station in Zaporizhzhia was hit by a Russian bomb on Wednesday morning, shortly after their visit, which left a crater-sized hole in the train tracks and damaged the station.

“Any smart person would choose the train over a car these days,” he said. “Even with shelling everywhere, stations and trains are the safest places in the country right now.”

Kamyshin said the delegation traveled on a special train with four of the railway’s newest sleeping cars. The only other passengers were part of the delegation or security.

“It was a regular, normal train, with normal carriages,” he said. “So [the delegation’s route] was no more special than the others. … It was the same route that normal passengers also take.”

The trip took about eight or nine hours, he said. The leaders spent a few hours with Zelensky and his team before taking an overnight train back to Poland.

“For me, it’s the best assessment of railways if foreign prime ministers choose railways instead of a car or a helicopter, or any other option,” he said.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said having a face-to-face discussion with Zelensky was “something really special”.

“The main objective of our visit and the main message of our mission is to tell our Ukrainian friends that they are not alone, that Europe is on your side,” Fiala said.

Fiala said he wanted to assure Ukrainians that we are “hosting your wives and children” and providing them with “shelter” in the Czech Republic.

The Czech Republic has now taken in 250,000 refugees, according to the prime minister, who said they “will continue to provide more help and support”.

Zelensky thanked EU leaders for their “wonderful support” as “so many other ambassadors left Ukraine because of the full-scale Russian invasion”.

“The most important thing is that we really trust these leaders,” Zelensky said. “When we talk about security guarantees, our future in the European Union, or when we talk about sanctions policy, we are 100% certain that whatever we discuss, whatever we say, will lead to a positive result for our country.”

He continued that with “friends like that”, Ukraine “can win”.

Poland’s Morawiecki, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša and Czech Fiala left by train before 9 a.m. local time, said the head of the Polish Prime Minister’s Chancellery, Michal Dworczyk. The train departed from Poland, a Czech government press officer told CNN on Tuesday.

The purpose of the visit is “to confirm the unequivocal support of the entire European Union for Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence and to present a broad spectrum of support for the Ukrainian state and society”, said a government spokesman.

They said the trip to Kyiv had been organized in agreement with European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and added that the international community would be informed of the delegation’s visit by the through international organizations, including the United Nations.

“In these defining times for the world, it is our duty to be where history is made, because it is not about us, but about the future of our children who deserve to live in a world freed from tyranny,” Morawiecki said in a Facebook post on Tuesday.

Morawiecki said he and the other leaders were traveling to Kyiv to “show Ukrainians our solidarity” and denounced “Putin’s criminal aggression against Ukraine”.

European values

More than 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion began on February 24, the International Organization for Migration announced on Tuesday.

Poland has been the largest host country for Ukrainian refugees, with more than 1.8 million people entering the country on Tuesday, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Prime Minister Fiala said last month that his country was sending “machine guns, submachine guns, sniper rifles and pistols and their corresponding ammunition worth CZK 188 million”, to support the Ukrainian government in its fight against Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 provision, calling it “weak”, during a speech on Tuesday. His comments came as key cities in Ukraine, including around Kyiv and Mariupol, reported extensive damage and dire situations.

Here is an overview of the main developments that took place today:

On the ground: Deaths were reported after shelling hit buildings in residential areas of kyiv on Tuesday, Ukrainian authorities say and new satellite images show widespread destruction across Ukraine, including damaged homes in a village near from Kyiv.

In the besieged city of Mariupol, smoking houses could be seen, where more than 2,500 civilians died, Ukrainian officials estimate.

Captivity situation in Mariupol: A Ukrainian official accused Russian troops of holding people captive in a hospital in Mariupol on Tuesday.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk regional administration, said doctors and patients were being held against their will at the Mariupol Regional Intensive Care Hospital, also known as Hospital No.

Sergei Orlov, deputy mayor of Mariupol, said Russian forces were ‘destroying’ the beleaguered Ukrainian city and that patients in a hospital were used as captives.

“There are a lot of fights on our streets, and the situation yesterday was terrible,” he told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga.

Evacuation corridors: US Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said there were reports of cars leaving Mariupol, noting that if this was in fact the start of an evacuation corridor, such a development would be a “step forward”.

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine: Talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have ended for the day and will resume on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podoliak. He noted that the negotiation process has been “very difficult and viscous”. “There are fundamental contradictions. But there is certainly room for compromise,” he said in a tweet.

The Prime Ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic arrive in Ukraine: The Polish, Slovenian and Czech Prime Ministers arrived in kyiv on Tuesday by train to meet Zelensky and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

The prime ministers arrived in the city on behalf of the EU council, Shmyal said on Twitterpraising the “courage of true friends”.

Zelensky will address the US Congress on Wednesday: The President of Ukraine is preparing to deliver a virtual speech to the US Congress tomorrow. Zelensky’s speech comes as Russia continues its unprovoked and deadly invasion of the country and Ukraine continues to press the United States for more aid as it retaliates.

US President Joe Biden will deliver his own speech on Wednesday after signing into law a massive aid package for Ukraine: Biden plans to detail U.S. aid to Ukraine in a speech on Wednesday, hours after Ukraine’s president is expected to make new requests for aid in a speech to Congress, the White House said.

A massive spending bill was signed into law by Biden on Tuesday that will provide a one-time injection of $13.6 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as it fights back against invading Russia.

Biden is also expected to travel to Europe next week for a special NATO meeting and show US support for Ukraine, the White House has confirmed. Biden will join NATO world leaders in person in Brussels, Belgium on Thursday, March 24.

Here is an overview of Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine:

TIRANA, Albania — The European Union’s foreign policy chief said on Tuesday the bloc would support Western Balkan countries to overcome the economic crisis caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Josep Borrell was in Tirana, the Albanian capital, on the second leg of his regional tour which took him to North Macedonia and Bosnia on Monday after Albania, where he met Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and other officials.

Borrell reiterated that “now is the time to relaunch the enlargement process and firmly anchor the Western Balkans in the EU”.

He denounced Russia’s “brutal aggression” in Ukraine and Russian bombing deaths, adding that Russia was exploiting the interconnectedness of the global economy as a weapon of war.

The consequences of the war, in particular the rise in energy prices, affected the poorest countries such as those in the Western Balkans.

The 27-nation bloc is opening up its “financial and economic capacities to respond to a crisis…the severe disruption that the war has created in the circles of the world economy, economically and financially,” he said.

Such an investment plan would mobilize unprecedented resources to diversify energy supply, reduce dependencies, strengthen regional cooperation, build infrastructure and create jobs.

Isolating Russia, taking a heavy toll on its economy through EU sanctions and supporting the Ukrainian people are the three essential things to do right now, he said.

The Western Balkan countries are at different stages on the road to integration into the bloc. Serbia and Montenegro are conducting comprehensive pre-accession negotiations while Albania and North Macedonia have been given the green light to launch them. Bosnia and Kosovo have only started the first stage of the EU process.

“Today more than ever, we must represent Europeans united in the integration of the Western Balkans,” Borrell said.

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Follow Llazar Semini at https://twitter.com/lsemini

An MP for Stormont has urged the executive office to ‘do more’ to prepare to welcome refugees from Ukraine and said Northern Ireland must be part of ‘finding a solution’ to the crisis.

Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday Politics programme, SDLP’s Matthew O’Toole said it was ‘simply not good enough’ to say the province could not accept refugees due to the absence of prime and deputy prime minister following the collapse of the executive.

Mr O’Toole said the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was the “biggest humanitarian crisis on our continent in most of our lifetimes”.

The South Belfast MP made the comments on the back of a letter to Leveling Secretary Michael Gove from the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales.

Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford have told Mr Gove they want to ‘maximise’ their contribution and act as ‘super sponsors’ for refugees fleeing the war-torn nation of Europe.

The governments of Holyrood and Cardiff said the super sponsorship would allow Ukrainians to gain permission to quickly enter each country and be temporarily housed while they work with local partners to provide accommodation to more term, protection and access to services.

A website where people can register their interest in taking part in the scheme will open on Monday, which will see people opening up their homes to refugees, or alternatively offering them separate property to stay in.

All those offering accommodation will be checked while Ukrainians coming to the UK under the scheme will be subject to security checks.

On Sunday, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin also said Ireland had accepted 5,500 people fleeing Ukraine.

Mr O’Toole said there ‘certainly’ is more Stormont could do.

“From my point of view, I have already asked the Executive Office to do more to prepare for welcoming Ukrainian refugees,” he said.

“This is the biggest humanitarian crisis on our continent in most of our lifetimes. We must participate in the search for a solution in Northern Ireland.

“It’s not enough to say we don’t have a prime minister and deputy prime minister. The executive office must prepare now.

Meanwhile Mr O’Toole has dismissed accusations that his party was ‘letting the DUP off the hook’ by trying to find a way to allow £300m of Treasury budget funds to be spent in Ireland North.

Finance Minister Conor Murphy has previously said legal advice received indicated the money could not be spent without an executive in place.

The SDLP has suggested that emergency legislation to unblock the impasse could be passed at Westminster or through the use of a fast-track private member’s bill at Stormont.

The SDLP MP argued he had suggested the proposal in order to ‘put the people of Northern Ireland first’ and insisted the party was not interested in ‘trying to put the DUP in a corner”.

“The DUP should not have come out and put us in this absurd situation. We want all parties to work with us on the solution,” he said.

“Think about the crisis we find ourselves in. It’s an emergency. We see fuel bills rising beyond historic precedent. We need urgent action to deal with it now.

“I don’t know all the legal advice that Conor Murphy has seen. It’s clear that every side, including the SDLP, should do their utmost to spend this £300million.

“If we didn’t try every avenue available to us, I think you would be rightly criticizing us. We’re kicking down every door trying to make it work.

“There was a series of discussions both at Stormont and at Westminster. For us, it’s not about partisan politics, it’s just about finding a legal way to spend that money. I think it is definitely worth a try.

The executive office has been contacted for a response.

The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell, will visit North Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina from 13 to 16 March. The visit will reaffirm the EU’s commitment and support to the region, also taking into account the Russian war against Ukraine and its impact on the security of Europe as a whole.

On Monday, HR/VP Borrell will travel to Skopje, North Macedonia, where he will meet President Stevo Pendarovski, Prime Minister Dimitar Kovačevski and Deputy Prime Minister for European Affairs Bojan Marichijk, Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani , Defense Minister Slavjanka Petrovska as well as with Speaker of Parliament Talat Xhaferi and leaders of parliamentary groups. The High Representative will hold a press point with Prime Minister Kovačevski at 12:00, which will be broadcast on EbS. The High Representative will also participate in an event where representatives of civil society and youth organizations will present their work on the contribution of the Western Balkans to the Conference on the Future of Europe. The event will be streamed live on the EEAS(link is external) Facebook channel.

On Tuesday, the High Representative will travel to Tirana, Albania, where he will meet Prime Minister Edi Rama. Their meeting will be followed by a press briefing at 11 a.m. High Representative Borrell will meet other representatives of the Albanian authorities and representatives of civil society and visit the ongoing restoration works of the mosaic of the National Museum of History, renovated under the EU aid to the recovery after the earthquake.

On Wednesday, the High Representative will travel to Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he will first visit the EUFOR Althea operation, whose troop capacity on the ground has been nearly doubled recently. High Representative Borrell will then meet the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, representatives of political oppositions and civil society.

Press engagements throughout the visit will be broadcast on EbS.

Photos and videos of the mission will be available on EbS and remarks from the press briefings will be published on the EEAS website.

VERSAILLES, France, March 10 (Reuters) – European Union leaders on Thursday condemned the “untold suffering” Russia was inflicting on Ukraine, but at a summit in France they refused a call from Kiev to early membership in the bloc and differed on the scope of sanctions against Moscow.

The Russian invasion – the biggest assault on a European state since World War II – has upended the European security order and prompted EU capitals to rethink what the bloc should represent, its economic policies, defense and energetic.

The EU was quick to impose sweeping sanctions and offer political and humanitarian support to Ukraine, as well as arms supplies, in the days following Russia’s February 24 attack.

However, cracks have appeared in the bloc’s united front, from its reaction to Kiev’s demand for fast-track membership of the wealthy club to how quickly it can wean itself off Russian fossil fuels and how best to shape a economic response.

“No one joined the European Union overnight,” Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said as talks between the 27 national leaders ended in the wee hours of Friday.

Leaders’ chairman Charles Michel said in a show of sympathy and moral support: “Ukraine belongs to the European family.”

But others have made it clear that Ukraine will not be allowed to join in a rush, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for and which enjoys the support of Ukraine’s neighbors on the EU’s eastern flank.

“There is no fast-track process,” said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a prominent opponent of EU enlargement, while adding that the bloc would continue to deepen its ties with Kyiv.

The door to membership could not be closed either, said French President Emmanuel Macron.

“Can we open an accession procedure with a country at war? I don’t think so. Can we close the door and say: ‘never’? That would be unfair. Can we forget the balance points in this region? ? Let’s be careful.”

Joining the EU is a process that usually takes years and requires meeting strict criteria ranging from economic stability to the eradication of corruption to liberal respect for human rights.

RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS

The invasion of Russia, which Moscow calls a special military operation, shattered the post-war European security order that emerged from the ashes of World War II and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. .

More than 2 million people have fled the country, thousands of civilians have been killed and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops have besieged several Ukrainian towns. Read more

“It’s a war crime,” Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, told leaders.

Some EU leaders have pushed for tougher sanctions that would hit Russia’s oil and gas industries, even if it meant repercussions for European nations dependent on Russian fossil fuels.

Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins, whose country shares a border with Russia, said cutting off Russian oil and gas would be the most effective way to bring Putin to the negotiating table.

“We should go much further and much faster,” Karins said.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has not commented on whether the bloc should ban imports of Russian oil, something Berlin has ruled out so far. Russia supplies about a third of Germany’s gas and crude needs.

But the EU should stop using Russian fossil fuels by 2027, von der Leyen said, adding that it would come up with a roadmap for that in mid-May.

Leaders resume at 09:00 GMT on Friday to discuss policy on tackling war-related defense and energy spending in Ukraine. Divisions have emerged over the possibility of a new joint EU debt issuance, advocated by countries such as France and Italy but opposed by Germany, the Netherlands and others. Read more

“The war in Ukraine is an immense trauma… But it is also most certainly something that will lead us to completely redefine the structure of Europe,” Macron said.

Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, Michel Rose, Juliette Jabkhiro, Richard Lough, Philip Blenkinsop, Marine Strauss, Andreas Rinke, Sabine Siebold and Benoit van Overstraeten; Written by Gabriela Baczynska and Richard Lough; Editing by Gareth Jones and Rosalba O’Brien

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

It has been nearly two weeks since Russia launched its assault on Ukraine, killing hundreds and displacing more than 2 million.

Besides generating a humanitarian crisis and sending shockwaves around the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine have also put the countries’ foreign policies in the spotlight.

While some countries, like Germany, have completely reoriented their defense and energy policies to rebuke Russia and secure European borders, others like India continue to maintain a relatively restrictive stance towards the old friend of Russia.

But after the Russian invasion hit India closer to home, killing an Indian student in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and hundreds of Indian students still awaiting evacuation, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under pressure to condemn Russia’s actions.

Last week, P Chidambaram, an Indian parliamentarian from the opposition Congress party, tweeted: “The Indian government should stop its verbal balancing act and sternly demand that Russia immediately stop shelling key cities in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Modi held talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and called for an immediate end to the violence.

Yet on the world stage, India has so far refrained five times from condemning Russia’s actions at the United Nations and has only reiterated a “commitment to the principles of the United Nations Charter , international law and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all States”. .

EU-India relations in trouble?

India’s balancing act of placating both Russia and the West in the Ukraine crisis caught the European Union off guard.

According to Indian media last week, the EU envoys together with Ukraine’s envoy to New Delhi met with senior Indian Foreign Ministry officials ahead of a historic vote at the UN General Assembly and urged India to take a tougher stance on the conflict.

French President Emmanuel Macron also held consultations with Modi on the matter. France currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU and a proactive Macron has held regular talks with EU leaders and world leaders to defuse the crisis.

After Macron’s call with Modi, a statement issued by the French Embassy in India said the two leaders agreed to “guarantee unhindered humanitarian access” to Ukraine and coordinate the resolution of the crisis in the country. UN Security Council.

In recent years, India has strengthened its ties with the EU to ward off Chinese threats. At the recent Indo-Pacific Forum, EU Foreign Ministers and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar agreed to deepen security relations by coordinating maritime presence in the Indian Ocean and enhancing cybersecurity .

Garima Mohan, a fellow in the Asia program of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that while Europe-India relations have come a long way in recent years, India may have to reassess its position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“European officials working with India are disappointed but certainly understand its position. The official line is that everything is business as usual with India. But for European politicians and audiences unfamiliar with Indian foreign policy, it will be a tough sell,” she told Al Jazeera.

“It is important to note that India’s position is changing and as the crisis gathers momentum, India will need to reassess its response,” she said.

Anil Trigunayat, India’s former ambassador to EU member Malta, shared a similar view.

“The EU understands India’s position and its strategic autonomy. India’s position in the Indo-Pacific is critical,” he told Al Jazeera.

“However, the Sino-Russian proximity may have certain implications for India.”

“Special relationship with Russia”

Moscow appreciated New Delhi’s cautious stance on the Ukraine crisis, with India not on a list of ‘hostile countries’ compiled by the Kremlin following a series of sanctions imposed by the EU, US and the UK.

However, India’s position towards Russia on the war in Ukraine is not new. Even in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, India maintained its neutrality at the UN.

Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, says India’s position is a consequence of its special relationship with Russia.

“New Delhi has long viewed Moscow as its most reliable and trustworthy partner, a perception shaped by decades of friendship, dating back to the early years of the Cold War,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Indian leaders often speak of Russia as the closest and most reliable friend of India, a country that has never had a crisis with India. And they see it as a country ever ready to help India on the world stage, including at the UN, where Russia’s voting habits on issues like Kashmir have backed India.

Russia, India’s main strategic partner, exported weapons worth $6.6 billion between 2016 and 2020 to the South Asian nation. However, India-Russia bilateral trade at $8.1 billion between April 2020 and March 2021 is not as high as India-EU trade, which stood at €62.8 billion (€68.5 billion) over the same period.

According to Kugelman, India’s Cold War nostalgia for Russia continues to weigh on their relationship. “It comes down to a simple math: Russia supports us and we will support it as well,” he said.

Vivek Mishra, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, says India’s diplomatic stance on Ukraine could be beneficial and there has been a ‘gradual maturity’ in strategic autonomy from India.

“India’s foreign policy has moved from non-alignment to embracing strategic autonomy in defense and security policies. This crisis has shown exactly that with India discussing the crisis with the EU and the US, refraining from taking a position on the conflict at the UN and speaking to both Russia and Ukraine. Mishra told Al Jazeera.

The Chinese Question

The question is: if China intervenes in the Ukraine crisis, will India support the West?

So far, China, like its rival India, has also played a balancing act between Russia and the West.

In a statement released last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told senior European officials that while Beijing respects a country’s sovereignty, including that of Ukraine, Russia’s security demands must also be handled properly.

However, China’s growing proximity to Russia in recent years is something India is watching closely, according to ORF’s Mishra.

“Putin going to the Beijing Olympics and meeting China’s Xi Jinping made India suspicious of Sino-Russian relations,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Even if China weighs more than it already has on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, India would continue to maintain its neutral position. China is an imminent threat to India, so India will not want pleasing Russia in a way that would threaten its national interests,” he added.

Kugelman thinks that if anything were to make India change its position, it would be the course of events, not the decisions of other countries.

“EU pressure is unlikely to influence India’s foreign policy. The essence of India’s cherished principle of strategic autonomy is that it will not bow to great power pressure to take a particular position or to align itself with a particular side,” he said. at Al Jazeera.

Kugelman said India makes foreign policy decisions “on its own terms” and there is little other countries, including its closest partners, can do to change that.

“But if Putin expands his invasion into NATO territory, all bets would be off and by then India would probably have no choice but to come out and condemn what would effectively be a new world war.”