A positive week calls for Western unity and democracy

Hello and welcome to the working week.

For the first time in a long time, this could be a very positive week for Western democracy.

First, NATO. One of the ironies of the Ukrainian conflict is that Russia’s invasion not only failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goal of limiting NATO’s power, it also fueled the expansion of the military alliance. , much to the delight of small European states bordering Russia.

Finland could apply for NATO membership within days, following a debate in the country’s parliament on Monday, and is expected to be followed by Sweden, which will host Finnish President Sauli Niinistö on Tuesday for talks on the way to achieve this.

The process of joining NATO will take longer, but the change will be significant, doubling NATO’s land border with Russia. The gathering of the leaders of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization tomorrow in the Kremlin is undoubtedly an attempt to show that President Vladimir Putin can organize his own military alliances, although it may also serve to illustrate the differences of scale between it and the western grouping. As if to underline this point, NATO commanders will meet in Brussels on Thursday.

The other source of hope in Western democracy is election year. Voting in the Australian federal election ends on Saturday with opposition Labor leader Anthony Albanese maintaining a lead in the polls over incumbent President Scott Morrison – although those indications have been wrong in the past.

Friday is the deadline for candidates in the French parliamentary ballot to declare their candidacy. Meanwhile, in South Korea, newly elected President Yoon Seok-youl will welcome his American counterpart Joe Biden on his first days in office.

Boris Johnson will visit northern ireland on Monday after Sinn Féin won the most seats on Stormont’s power-sharing executive.

The UK Prime Minister must resolve the stalemate in which Democratic Unionist Party politicians refuse to join the assembly as the post-Brexit trade protocol between the UK and the EU remains in place. Johnson’s solution should be legislation to override parts of the protocol, which he agreed to in 2019.

Let me know what you think of the week ahead. What are you most interested in this week? Email me at [email protected]

Economic data

The week will start with an avalanche of data from the United States and China – retail sales, industrial production and housing data. Other highlights will be inflation updates from the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU.

We’ll get a glimpse of the European Central Bank’s view on monetary policy with the publication of the minutes of its April meeting and the meeting of South African central bankers to decide on their next interest rate move. – which is expected to be a 50 basis point hike, the first time they’ve done such a thing since 2016.

Companies

The cost of living is rising as international travel becomes a possibility again, so it must be a good time for budget airlines, right? EasyJet and Ryanair both have investor updates this week, which will provide some insight into the strength of flight demand during the peak summer period.

However, other factors are weighing on companies. EasyJet in particular, has struggled with Covid-related staffing shortages, and investors will be watching to see if that disrupts previously announced plans to fly 90% of its 2019 flight schedules this quarter.

Does the stagnation of productivity and the energy crisis send the British back to the economy of the 1970s? If so, then the British consumer goods group first foods – the home of Mr Kipling cakes, Oxo bouillon cubes and Instant Potato Mix Smash – has the marks to remind Britons of those days of beige and austerity. Whatever the reason, Premier Foods is riding a wave. Having already updated its guidance for the full year, investors have high hopes for sales success when the company reports earnings on Wednesday.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Canada, manufacturing and wholesale figures

• China, April retail sales and industrial production data

• EU, March trade figures

• Greggs Q1 Trade Update

• Japan, April Producer Price Index (PPI) data

• United Kingdom, monthly house price figures Rightmove

• Results: BuzzFeed Q1, Ryanair AF, Take-Two interactive software Q4, Tencent Music Entertainment Q1

Tuesday

• EU and eurozone first quarter GDP figures

• France, unemployment rate in Q1

• Italy, consumer price index (CPI) data

• UK unemployment figures, April insolvency stats plus Q1 productivity flash estimate

• U.S. April retail sales and industrial production figures, plus May housing market index data

• Results: Home deposit Q1, Imperial Marks H1, JD.com Q1, Land titles AF, Vodafone AF, walmart Q1

Wednesday

• Aviva Q1 Trade Update

• Canada, April CPI data

• EU trade figures, Q1 plus April data of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

• European Central Bank Governing Council holds non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt

• Japan, March data on industrial production and preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter

• Russia, flash figures of GDP for the 1st quarter

• UK, April CPI and Retail Price Index (RPI) data

• United States, residential construction figures in April

• Results: ABN Amro Q1, British land AF, Burberry AF, Cisco Systems Q3, Experian AF, Marston’s H1, Mitchells and butlers H1, first foods AF, Airlines to Singapore AF, TJX Companies Q1

Thusday

• EU, minutes of the last meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

• Japan, April CPI figures

• Philippines, monetary policy committee meeting

• South Africa, monetary policy committee meeting

• UK Trade Figures and CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey

• Results: easyJet H1, Generali Q1, Investec AF, national grid AF, Qinetiq AF, royal mail AF

Friday

• China, monetary policy rate decision

• EU, consumer confidence flash data

• Japan, April CPI figures

• Results: Deere & Company Q2, At national scale AF, Richemont AF

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

• EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels

• Finland’s parliament will debate NATO membership after the country’s President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Finland ‘must apply’ to join the NATO military alliance in days

• Russia, Collective Security Treaty Organization leaders including President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko meet in the Kremlin

• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson travels to Northern Ireland to try to persuade Democratic Unionist politicians to join power-sharing executive in Stormont

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey answers questions during the Treasury Committee hearing, including an explanation of how the central bank plans to bring inflation back to its 2% target

• In the United States, President Joe Biden receives Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at the White House

Tuesday

• EU, Andrea Enria, Chairwoman of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, delivers a speech at the Institut Montaigne in Paris

• France, the 75th edition of the Cannes Film Festival begins

• Sweden and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö pay state visit to Stockholm as both countries prepare to join NATO

• UK, House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee holds session on the merits of governance in light of the Greensill Capital scandal

Wednesday

• Germany and G7 development ministers meet in Berlin

• Spain and the UEFA Europa League final will take place at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán stadium in Seville

• United States, start of trial of four men allegedly affiliated with the “Proud Boys” movement on charges stemming from their participation in the January 2021 Capitol riot

Thusday

• Belgium and NATO military commanders meet for defense chiefs meeting in Brussels

• UK, the 67th Ivor Novello Awards takes place at Grosvenor House in London

• ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos speaks at the 20th annual symposium on “Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States”

Friday

• Cambodia, Remembrance Day to commemorate the genocide of the Khmer Rouge regime which ruled the country from 1975 to 1979

• EU and foreign ministers from the 46 member states of the Council of Europe meet in Turin to discuss their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Foreign Affairs (Development) Council of the EU meets in Brussels

• France, deadline for candidates to declare themselves candidates for the French legislative elections

• US President Joe Biden begins his visit to South Korea, where he will meet new South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl

• In the UK, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at an event hosted by ACCA Cymru Wales in Cardiff, in addition to National Work From Home Day

Saturday

• Australia, federal election polls close

• Thailand and Trade Ministers of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Countries Meet in Bangkok

Sunday

• Switzerland, the 2022 World Economic Forum event begins in Davos. Topics on the agenda will include recovering from the pandemic, tackling climate change and building a better future for work

• France, the Roland Garros Roland Garros tennis tournament begins in Paris

• UK, Neil Campbell aims to set new cycling world speed record

• US President Joe Biden begins his visit to Japan, including a meeting with the leaders of the other Quad countries, Australia, India and Japan for discussions following the series of weapons tests by the North Korea